Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

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Dan Epperly
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Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#1 Post by Dan Epperly »

Every now and then car guys muse on the future values of these cars, well, I heard an interesting report on NPR this afternoon on the way back from work.
They interviewed some dude who has quite the rep for predicting the future performance of the economy based on stock value of Sotherbys , based on the performance of sales of fine art. However, while Sotherbys stock values have gone up, art sales have gone down, so what gives? It
Turns out that the tech millionaires are not buying art, instead they are buying collectible cars and that is what is driving Sotherbys stock values forward. They mentioned that a early Jag, the first with disc brakes, sold for $12 million which is what fine collectible art sells for. I guess the techies zoned out on their required humanities courses and prefer art that moves vs is attached to a wall. They mentioned the upcoming auction of Joplins 356 and the apparent intrest amongst techies. Interesting report over all.

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Jim Alton
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#2 Post by Jim Alton »

Yep. That's one of the main reason prices are rising.

$12M sounds like a lot for a Jaguar unless it was something like a Le Mans winning C-type.

I saw some early reports that RM Southeby's estimaed Janis Joplin's 356C would sell for about $ 400k. That seems very low to me and many other people. It was discussed: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=40043&hilit=janis+joplin

By they way, do high art and classic care prices correlate with a rising or a falling stock market?
 
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Doug McDonnell
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#3 Post by Doug McDonnell »

For those interested here is a link to the interview Dan mentioned. http://www.npr.org/2015/10/08/446980267 ... ech-bubble And here is a report on the car: http://gtspirit.com/2015/08/16/jaguar-c ... 2-million/ Jim Portfolio Diversification for people not like me:>) Although there are 2 guys close to me with a nice collection. http://www.lackophoto.com/Galleries/tab ... fault.aspx
1965 356C 2000 BMW 740i Sport 1967 Honda CL77 There is never enough time to do it right, but always enough time to do it over.

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Jim Alton
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#4 Post by Jim Alton »

Wow! I guessed right: it was a C-type although it wasn't the Le Mans winner.
 
Jim Alton
Los Angeles County, CA
1958 Porsche 356A Cabriolet
1965 Porsche 911 Coupé
1966 Volkswagen Type 2
2003 Porsche 986 Boxster

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Dennis ODonnell
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#5 Post by Dennis ODonnell »

1-Sotheby's stock is not a leading economic indicator or a leading market indicator. E.g. it tanked at the same time as everything else in August. But wouldn't that make things easy?

2-The big $$ fine art auctions haven't declined; according to FT they still sell out at >85% as they have since the start of the bull mkt in 2011. Wealthy Chinese buyers and banks may not see a Bugatti in the same light they view a Giacometti. His method might work for him but his premise re cars is sketchy.

3-Compared to fine art, high $ car auctions are a recent thing. It's great that our little cars ride the coattails of that mkt but the next wave of monied geniuses might collect something else and cars'll just be part of the diversity. Hopefully a floor will be established by then.

Every great painting is unique. Ars longa, vita brevis.

Bob Watts
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#6 Post by Bob Watts »

http://www.revzilla.com/common-tread/ri ... otorcycles

More insight into market pricing...
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Edwin Ek
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#7 Post by Edwin Ek »

Remember, trees grow to the sky.
#6386

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Neil Bardsley
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#8 Post by Neil Bardsley »

My take is that the classic car market is now part of the SWAG (Sliver, Wine, Art & Gold) investing that has become popular recently. We are in strange economic times and look what has happen to Gold since 2011. Slow/no global growth. Central Banks around the world pumping cash into your economics. While trying to devalue their currencies to remind competitive. The Janet says she thinks there will be a rates rise before the end of the year but the figures don't justify it. Why are equities so high on should bad growth because of cheap cash. Surely the same must be true for SWAG? Who knows what the future holds for the classic car market. Now I'm quite sure I could produce a very nice chart on the correlation between the S&P 500 and 356 prices but causation is an entirely different matter!

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Dennis ODonnell
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#9 Post by Dennis ODonnell »

"...the S&P 500 and 356 prices..."

Just for grins I plotted #1 356As, (courtesy Hagerty) against the Russell 2000 recently. I didn't see anything useful. The last data point was "August," no date given and the line was flat, while equities markets topped in June and corrected in mid August. H's next sample might hint at whether cars follow fine art/ fine wine going forward but it's not much of an index.

chris romney
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Re: Tech nerds, Porsches and the car market

#10 Post by chris romney »

Sotheby's stock is up due to the involvement of activist investors among other reasons. They have a new CEO and board in addition to instituting a large stock buy back. Their basic business is also very good as prices for art, cars and all the other things they auction are at record highs and sales are strong. We've had zero interest rates for 8 years and the European and Japanese central banks are now following suit. There is a tremendous amount of money sloshing around the world financial system. It has to go somewhere. I would bet a lot of it is ending up in cars (as well as art, London & New York condos etc. etc.) and other non traditional investments. Prior to the recent big move, vintage car prices were still relatively depressed after the '89 crash. It always makes me nervous when investment advisors deem something which wasn't traditionally an investment, like our cars an "asset class" and raise large pools of money to invest in them. I guess we'll find out when Janet Yellen and the Fed finally "take their fingers off the scale" and we return to a normalized interest rate environment. If values for our cars hold up then, we'll know they're for real. Just my $.02.

Chris
 

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