VW Mess

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Adam Wright
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Re: VW Mess

#31 Post by Adam Wright »

steverestelli wrote:I would take a 17% profit and run.
I bet you would Steve, you really would.
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Steve Proctor
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Re: VW Mess

#32 Post by Steve Proctor »

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/201 ... ns-scandal

The potential ramifications are limitless. Attorneys, line up...
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Dennis ODonnell
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Re: VW Mess

#33 Post by Dennis ODonnell »

"...some pollution controls intended to bring catalysts or other components up to temperature quickly,..."

It does sound a little like an ignorant witch hunt this time around. My BMW's cats have separate timed heaters rather than temperature-dependent switches.

Hi Steve. I'm with Adam on hysteria causing windfall buying opportunities. Maybe he follows Volkswagen; its high share price reflects strong numbers & this was a gift horse. 17% negates the market corrections of August & Sept but why would you sell there?

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Re: VW Mess

#34 Post by steverestelli »

This is FACT not hysteria, the story seems to get worse every day:
Volkswagen's emissions woes deepen as 800K more cars affected
Benedikt Kammel
Volkswagen AG said an internal probe in the wake of the diesel scandal that has engulfed the company for the past six weeks showed irregularities on an additional 800,000 cars, deepening a crisis that has already cost long-time Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn his job, depressed the stock price and led to ballooning provisions.
The German carmaker said the economic risk stemming from the finding is about 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion), according to a release on Tuesday, citing preliminary estimates. Volkswagen, based in Wolfsburg in northern Germany, said the revelations surfaced following a “comprehensive investigation to establish whether there were indications of further irregularities” after the initial findings rocked the company in September.

“The board of management of Volkswagen AG will immediately start a dialog with the responsible authorities regarding the consequences of these findings,” Volkswagen said. “This should lead to a reliable assessment of the legal, and the subsequent economic consequences of this not yet fully explained issue.”

Volkswagen didn’t identify the brands or types of engines affected. The announcement comes a day after U.S. authorities faulted the manufacturer for a wider-spread use of emission- cheating software than Volkswagen had previously admitted, a claim the company initially rejected.
Volkswagen has already set aside 6.7 billion euros to cover fixes of the 11 million cars worldwide it has so far identified as containing the illegal software, and management has said the sum will not suffice to cover lawsuits, fines and compensation.
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Re: VW Mess

#35 Post by Dennis ODonnell »

Re your selling a 17% gain, I thought you had analyzed the stock; my mistake.

I think you're confusing news, ("This is FACT not hysteria...") with the reaction of a market to that news. The immediate drop in share price was hysterical, i.e. it bounced right back. BTW did your source use the underline & boldface type? That in itself is reactionary: News is just information.
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Re: VW Mess

#36 Post by steverestelli »

Porsche on Tuesday Halted Sales of 2014-2016 Diesel Cayenne SUVs *
Wednesday 11/04/2015 11:05 AM ET
The potential ramifications are limitless. Attorneys, line up...

Exactly my point......who knows where the share price will drop to from here.
Perhaps those buying shares now are waiting for a dead cat bounce?
EPA fines alone can be $5000.00 per car.....consumer lawsuits.....shareholder lawsuits.....Why should anyone buy this stock now?
I might buy in if the company files for bankruptcy, I did well buying Lehman Brothers shares in 2008 for .005..... LEHKQ, LEHLQ, LHHNQ, LEHNQ.
Are you seriously buying shares now? Please give me the various preferred symbols, I would love to watch them since you follow the market closely.

Dennis....why do you think the market over reacted to this:
German automaker Volkswagen is in the grip of a worsening scandal.

For the last six weeks, there's been a steady stream of revelations about how it rigged pollution tests on millions of its vehicles.







Here are five of the big numbers that tell the story of a corporate giant in crisis:


1. 11+ million cars


Volkswagen says as many as 11 million cars may have been fitted with software to cheat diesel emissions tests. It will recall at least 8.5 million cars in Europe and another 500,000 in the U.S.

The embattled company also admitted Tuesday it set carbon dioxide emissions and fuel consumption figures too low when certifying about 800,000 vehicles. Most have diesel engines, but some have gas (petrol) engines.


2. $9.5 billion


The company has said it will cost at least 8.7 billion euros ($9.5 billion) to recall the diesel vehicles, and deal with the consequences of understating carbon dioxide emissions.

Analysts say the total cost is likely to run into tens of billions of euros once fines, penalties and compensation are included.


3. $1.9 billion


Volkswagen crashed to a loss of 1.7 billion euros ($1.9 billion) in the third quarter due to the scandal. That was down from a healthy profit of three billion euros in the same period last year, and its first quarterly loss in more than 15 years.

It has promised to make massive savings, and has plenty of cash on hand for now: 28 billion euros at the end of September.


4. $25 billion


That's the value that has been wiped off the company's market capitalization since the scandal first broke in September. The shares have plunged by nearly 30% since then, hurting investors such as Qatar, the German state of Lower Saxony and Volkswagen's (VLKAY) biggest shareholder, Porsche (POAHF).


5. 40 times the legal limit


The cars in question cheated U.S. pollution tests by using software to make them seem greener. In real life, the cars would expel as much as 40 times the allowed levels of toxic nitrogen oxide.
Last edited by steverestelli on Wed Nov 04, 2015 12:14 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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C J Murray
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Re: VW Mess

#37 Post by C J Murray »

I think I heard this morning, while having TV on in the background, that some gasoline engines are now suspect and that Porsche and Audi also have problem software.
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Dennis ODonnell
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Re: VW Mess

#38 Post by Dennis ODonnell »

"...seriously buying shares now? Please give me the various preferred symbols,...."

Not now, Steve; then. Buying within a week of the EPA announcement and selling two weeks later (more like +30%), was a good trade. It anticipated the hysteria and banked on the lingering good reputation of the company. Basic psychology and herd mentality but that ship has sailed.

No one here's suggested "investing" in it. The EPA said owners shouldn't worry and can keep driving. CARB says maybe "hundreds of people will die" as a result. First it was 37K in fines per vehicle, last night it was 300.

As I'm sure you know, the symbol is VOW.DE. I don't follow it.

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Re: VW Mess

#39 Post by Dennis ODonnell »

I see you've edited your post to prove VW is a lousy bet. But that was never in dispute. The point Adam, I think, and myself made was that it was a good, quick trade.

Why do I think the market overreacted to "this" (your long list)? It didn't, there was no # 2,3 or 4 "this" in mid september. It reacted to the initial announcement and the bounce could be anticipated.

Short term opportunities may not be your cup of tea. Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG were not mine. I'm glad you did well.

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Re: VW Mess

#40 Post by steverestelli »

Dennis,
You seemed to support Adam's initial buy then the stock went up 13% then 17%. This is only a paper profit...no one said they sold.
I merely stated that I would have sold then for a quick profit THEN. I never claimed to own VW stock myself, I never purported to follow VW stock.
Did Adam say he sold his position? I never saw anyone's selling post or that you made a quick buy and immediate sell on the bounce, until yours just now. My mistake........I thought you were long.
It's extremely risky buying into a falling knife and immediately selling on the bounce. I'm glad you timed it well and made a quick buck. Hopefully Adam will profit too.
If a Q gets added to the symbol I will enter eventually.
GLTA Volkswagen AG shareholders.
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Re: VW Mess

#41 Post by M Penta »

I sold 1/2 position +15%, Bought the day it hit the fan. Actually have order in for more (VLKAY) just over 25.00, but it ran away today. I may up the ante, but will remain patient as we can probably expect more negative headline's soon. If nothing else, a bad market day should reel this back to low 25's. I do plant to hold some long term, but am a bit nervous still.

As an owner of an older Tdi, I could care less about depreciation etc. It is my commuter and has 238K on it, been a great car. It is however disappointing that VW intentionally deceived the public and regulators. I can understand disabling regen during Etest, but changing other conditions is a different story.

As I understand it, the EPA testing is not fair in that it only measures emissions by gallon, with out considering the amount of miles travelled, which seems deeply flawed to me. Regardless, these Tdi's are in no way worse on the environment then the millions of full size SUV's/trucks out there.

I do think this is the beginning of the end of the hard struggle to bring diesel passenger cars to market, partly do to this situation, but also due to the fact that diesel cars do not pencil out as well these days any way (even for some one like me with a long commute). With small gas cars approaching similar mileage figures, higher diesel cost, diesel vehicles more expensive to buy (certainly as will be with implementation of urea based systems), and greater complexity/reliability issue's of modern diesel vehicles - electric cars are that much closer. Not saying I want to see it as an auto enthusiast, but they're coming.

VW will pay dearly, but I am in the camp that they will be fine (certainly survive). They have electric vehicles already and will vigorously expand the line up.

Mark

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Adam Wright
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Re: VW Mess

#42 Post by Adam Wright »

The stock went up another 4% today. Don't forget, while this will be a bump in the road for one of the top 5 car companies, they are still selling cars, and will continue to sell cars. Not to mention sometimes these shake-ups can be good for large companies, it gives new managers carte blanche to clear house of the deadwood. Meaning when the company does emerge from crisis it is leaner, stronger, and better organized.
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Re: VW Mess

#43 Post by M Penta »

Yes it sure did, pretty close to where I sold it now. I'll raise my bid, but cautious about chasing after 8% in two days.

Other then the original swift fall, it has been quite resilient all things considered. I'd be wise to just hold that dang thing for a couple of years....

Good luck

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Dennis ODonnell
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Re: VW Mess

#44 Post by Dennis ODonnell »

The plot thickens.

The revised Digital Millenium Copywrite Act which allows us to jailbreak our phones, also allows us to hack our car's s/w. My previous car was "chipped" by Dinan, releasing an extra 25hp. I never saw a map that included emissions, maybe I missed it. That tuner's work was certified by the CARB. The Feds may forever be playing catch-up pool on this one like they are with small drones.

<http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/23/busin ... -well&_r=1>

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Adam Wright
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Re: VW Mess

#45 Post by Adam Wright »

The stock went up almost 5% today, I'm up 21%, VW is beating my IRA and beating it good.
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